For all the noise about a 90-day tariff truce between the U.S. and China, the only ones grinning ear to ear right now are the shipping lines.
After the U.S. slashed its tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%, and China cut theirs from 125% to 10%, the race was on.
Retailers, importers, and manufacturers are stampeding to get goods onto boats before the clock runs out.
And the carriers?
They’re licking their chops.
Linerlytica, the container shipping consultancy, says shipping lines are already slapping on “emergency” surcharges of $1,000 to $2,000 per 40-foot container.
That’s on top of current spot rates, which are holding at around $2,400 per box—but are expected to blast past $3,000 in the coming weeks.
And don’t expect them to stop there.
If demand stays hot—as retailers scramble to refill shelves after April’s cargo collapse—those rates could keep creeping up into July and beyond.
Why?
Because when the tariffs jumped in April, carriers yanked vessels off the transpacific route like poker players folding a bad hand.
Now? They can’t get them back fast enough.
Capacity is still down 17% since April 20.
Blanked sailings have jumped 86%.
That means the shipping lines are in the driver’s seat—and they’re charging tolls at every turn.
And while the big players might grit their teeth and pay up, small businesses—the Beth Benikes of the world—are left clawing for scraps.
Beth, the veteran and business owner I saw on CBS Sunday Morning, might finally have a crack at getting her baby goods onto a boat. But now, she’ll have to fork over thousands more in surcharges—all for a chance to play in a rigged game with a 90-day timer.
This isn’t supply and demand—it’s supply, demand, and desperation.
And the folks in the corner offices?
They know exactly how to squeeze every last dime out of this chaos.
So yeah, there’s breathing room.
But only if you can afford it.
And only if you can find a boat.