Let’s get this straight from the jump: The oil patch was cracking before Trump.
But the man sure poured gasoline on the fire.
A new report from S&P Global Commodity Insights is sounding the alarm: U.S. oil production is on track to fall in 2026—the first time in a decade outside the pandemic crash.
And it’s not just rig counts that are down.
It’s market confidence.
It’s drilling activity.
It’s investor trust.
Ed Hirs, the plain-speaking energy economist from Houston, says the fall’s already here. He’s betting on a 400,000-barrel-a-day production drop by the end of this year.
That’s a collapse—not a wobble.
And while the Trump camp keeps spinning fairy tales about “lowering production costs” and “making America energy dominant,” the numbers tell a different story:
- Oil’s sitting at $62 a barrel.
- Costs are up, thanks to steel and aluminum tariffs.
- Banks are dialing back loans.
- OPEC+ is cranking up output, gleefully squeezing U.S. producers into the mud.
- But let’s not pretend Canada’s oil patch is sitting pretty in all this.
Canada’s shale and oil sands producers—the Montney, Duvernay, and beyond—are riding the same busted rollercoaster.
They need $60-plus oil just to breathe.
Their pipelines to the West Coast and Gulf Coast are clogged with political red tape and endless lawsuits.
And thanks to Trump’s steel tariffs?
They’re paying more to drill the same wells with the same steel pipes.
Canada’s oil can’t even make it to global markets without hitching a ride through U.S. ports. If the U.S. slows down, Canada’s stuck, too.
This isn’t just America’s hangover—it’s a North American oil patch collapse.
And while consumers are enjoying the illusion of cheaper gas today, they’ll get the sucker punch tomorrow when production cuts turn into price spikes.
That’s how the oil patch works—boom, bust, and a lot of weeping in between.
Wall Street? They’ve already seen enough.
Rig counts are falling.
Investors are bailing.
Oilfield service companies are bleeding red ink.
But the Trump crowd keeps chanting the same old script: “Drill, baby, drill. Winning.”
Problem is, the math doesn’t add up.
You can’t drill your way to cheap oil while raising the costs of drilling, blocking exports, and picking trade fights with half the planet. Trump’s trying to ride both bulls at the same time—and both are kicking him in the face.
And if you think Canada’s going to ride in and fill the gap? Forget it.
Their oil patch is hobbled by the same overproduction, the same fragile demand, and the same infrastructure logjams.
They can’t save the day—they’ll be lucky if they can keep the lights on.
The Bottom Line?
Trump’s tariffs didn’t start the fire—but he’s fanning the flames.
And the oil patch on both sides of the border is burning down faster than the spin doctors can cook up excuses.
Consumers will get the price whiplash.
Investors will get a stomachache.
And the folks who actually work the rigs?
They’ll get pink slips while the suits keep dreaming about energy dominance from the safety of their boardrooms.