The United States and Israel struck Iran.
Iran struck back.
Within hours, oil tankers in the Persian Gulf did what oil tankers rarely do: they stopped. Some slowed to a crawl. Others ducked into nearby ports. Nobody wants to be the floating headline that explodes on CNN.
And when ships hesitate in the Strait of Hormuz, markets don’t hesitate at all.
They panic.
The Chokepoint That Runs Your Car
About one-fifth of the world’s oil passes through that narrow stretch of water between Iran and Oman. It is the plumbing of the global economy. You don’t see it, but it feeds everything from your morning commute to the lettuce in your refrigerator.
Most of that oil goes to Asia — China, India, Japan, South Korea. Not primarily to us.
But here’s the thing: oil is priced globally. It doesn’t matter where the barrel ends up. If supply looks threatened anywhere, the price goes up everywhere.
Including Fresno. Including Des Moines. Including wherever you’re standing at the pump squinting at the numbers climbing faster than your patience.
“But America Is Energy Independent…”
We produce a lot of oil. More than we did a decade ago. That’s good. It cushions the blow.
But we still live in a global pricing system. Crude is traded on world markets. When traders think supply might tighten — not even does tighten, just might — they bid prices up.
And they’ve already started.
Here’s what that means in plain English:
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If crude jumps $10 a barrel, you can expect roughly 20–30 cents more per gallon at the pump.
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If it jumps $20 or more, you’re looking at a dollar swing in some states.
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Diesel rises too — and diesel is what moves food, building materials, and just about everything on a truck.
You won’t feel it tomorrow morning.
You’ll feel it in weeks.
And then you’ll feel it everywhere.
The Ripple Nobody Talks About
Energy is the base layer of the economy.
When oil rises:
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Shipping costs rise.
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Airline tickets rise.
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Grocery distribution costs rise.
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Construction materials rise.
It seeps into inflation like water into drywall.
If the spike is short and the conflict cools down, the market settles. Traders exhale. Prices drift back.
If tankers stay parked and missiles keep flying, the risk premium sticks.
That’s when the Federal Reserve starts sweating again. Higher energy means inflation pressure. Inflation pressure means higher interest rates stay longer. Higher rates mean mortgages don’t come down.
You see how this works? One explosion in the Gulf, and suddenly your adjustable-rate loan doesn’t look so adjustable.
The Real Risk
Right now, what we’re seeing is fear priced into oil. Not a full blockade. Not actual mass destruction of shipping.
But markets trade on fear faster than facts.
If Iran were to seriously disrupt transit through the Strait of Hormuz — even temporarily — crude could punch toward $100 a barrel or higher in a hurry.
That’s not theoretical. We’ve been there before.
And when we’ve been there before, American families paid for it in:
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$4–$5 gasoline
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Higher grocery bills
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Tight household budgets
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Slower economic growth
The Hard Truth
The Middle East may feel far away.
It isn’t.
The global energy market is a web. Tug one strand hard enough and the whole thing vibrates.
You don’t have to support or oppose the strikes to understand the math. Strategy has costs. Markets react instantly. The American citizen feels it later — at the pump, at the checkout line, in the monthly budget spreadsheet.
The question now isn’t whether prices will tick up. They already are.
The question is whether this is a flare-up…
or the start of a sustained disruption.
If it’s the latter, the pocketbook will know before Washington admits it.
And history says the pocketbook always votes last.