When Halliburton starts waving red flags, you’d be wise to stop, look, and listen.
The big dog of the oil patch posted a 7% drop in revenue last quarter—and while they tried to put on their Sunday best for Wall Street, the cracks were showing like a drunk at a church picnic. Tariffs? They’re eating into profits. Oil prices? Sinking like an anchor. And the good ol’ boys in the executive suites? They’re suddenly talking about “risk creeping into the models.”
Translation? They’re spooked.
Halliburton’s CFO Eric Carre admitted tariffs could shave off 2 to 3 cents per share next quarter, and while that sounds like chump change to a company that throws around billions, it’s a canary in the frack pit. Because when a giant like Halliburton starts mumbling about needing “clarity and stability” on trade policies, you know the boardroom cowboy swagger is giving way to some good old-fashioned hand-wringing.
And why wouldn’t they be sweating? Oil prices have fallen off a cliff—down from $80 to under $65 a barrel. And with OPEC+ pumping like it’s their last night on Earth, the U.S. oil patch is finding itself stuck in the mud while the Saudis run the table.
But here’s where it gets rich.
While the industry loves to parade around as champions of Trump’s “energy dominance,” they’ve been a little quieter when it comes to the 25% steel tariffs that have jacked up the price of drilling rigs, pipes, and parts. You want to drill? Sure, if you like losing money. Halliburton says it now costs up to $400,000 more per well just because of those tariffs.
But don’t expect them to bite the hand that fed them deregulation. Publicly, they’ll still slap bumper stickers about freedom and fracking, while privately telling investors they’re parking rigs, cutting crews, and shipping fleets overseas.
Even Liberty Energy—once run by now-Energy Secretary Chris Wright—is feeling the squeeze. Their profits are dropping. Their stock is tumbling. Their press releases? Radio silence on tariffs, loud and proud about “efficiencies.” Translation: layoffs.
The market is sending signals loud enough to rattle your fillings, but the suits are still pretending this is all part of the plan.
Here’s the truth: The oil industry isn’t being held back by politicians. It’s being hog-tied by the math. You can’t drill your way into profit when prices are sinking and your steel costs more than your oil is worth.