You can almost hear the silence in the oil fields.
Not too long ago, “Drill, baby, drill” was more than a campaign slogan—it was the energy gospel for a certain flavor of American politics. Black gold, job creation, oil independence, wave that flag. And for a while, it worked. The Permian boomed. Rigs multiplied. We flirted with energy dominance.
But today? That slogan is about as relevant as a cassette tape.
With crude oil prices stuck below $65 a barrel, drilling is no longer a rallying cry—it’s a risk. The break-even point for most U.S. oil companies hovers right around that number, and right now, prices are slipping below it. WTI crude is hovering near $60, and nobody’s eager to burn capital when the math doesn’t work.
This isn’t about politics anymore. It’s about profit.
Oil companies—especially the big ones—aren’t dumb. They’ve learned that Wall Street doesn’t reward cowboy drilling anymore. Shareholders want returns, not rig counts. So instead of drilling new wells, companies are tightening budgets, cutting exploration, and putting their money into dividends and stock buybacks.
Even the small operators—once the scrappy backbone of American drilling—are backing off. Because what’s the point of producing more oil if the market punishes you for it?
And here’s the kicker: even if oil prices do tick back up, new tariffs on imported drilling equipment have made it more expensive to drill in the first place. That’s right—tariff tantrums are raising the cost of doing business. So the same administration that chants “drill, baby, drill” is making it harder and more expensive to do just that.
Then there’s OPEC. They’re ramping up production again, adding more supply to a global market that’s already shaky. That means prices stay low. And as prices stay low, the appetite for drilling disappears faster than a politician’s campaign promise.
And yes—some of the same folks who paraded “drill, baby, drill” baseball caps a couple of months ago floated the idea that maybe, just maybe, if we rename the Gulf of Mexico to the “Gulf of America,” that somehow the oil rigs will start humming again. As if rebranding geography is an energy strategy.
You can’t make this up.
So if you’re waiting for a surge in American oil production—don’t hold your breath.
This isn’t 2008. It’s 2025.
And the rules have changed.
“Drill, baby, drill” has been replaced by “discipline, baby, discipline.”
The oil patch is quiet not because of tree-huggers or red tape—but because investors have taken the wheel. And they’re not interested in slogans.
They’re interested in profits.