You can always tell when the oil boys start feeling queasy—they park the rigs, talk about “discipline,” and suddenly forget all that tough talk about energy independence.
This week, they did just that.
Baker Hughes’ latest rig count shows U.S. oil and gas rigs dropped by six to 578—the lowest since January. That’s not just a blip. That’s a pattern. The rig count is now down 25 from a year ago, about 4% lower, and falling like a rig hand’s paycheck.
In the Gulf of Mexico? Three rigs shut down—leaving just nine still working, the fewest since the COVID slump days of 2021.
Permian Basin? Two more rigs pulled. Down to 285, the lowest since late 2021.
New Mexico? Four rigs cut. Down to 96, numbers we haven’t seen since spring 2022.
Even the DJ-Niobrara in Colorado and friends—which used to be the little engine that could—is limping with just five rigs, the lowest since 2021.
So much for the oil boom, eh?
But don’t feel too bad for the suits. This isn’t about a shortage of oil—it’s about Wall Street calling the shots. See, instead of drilling, they’re focused on paying down debt and showering shareholders with buybacks and dividends. The old playbook of “drill, baby, drill” has been replaced with “pump less, profit more.”
And while the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) still insists oil production will creep up to 13.4 million barrels a day in 2025, even they admit the forecast is lower than last month’s guess—because those pesky tariffs, shaky global demand, and OPEC+ flooding the market are sucking the life out of prices.
Oil permits in Texas?
Lowest in four years—just 570 new applications in April, down from 795 in March. Apparently, even Texas oilmen can smell the writing on the wall.
And the big-name shale players?
Diamondback’s cutting three rigs. Coterra’s slashing three in the Permian. Matador’s dropping one by mid-2025. That’s not belt-tightening—that’s bracing for a crash.
Oh, and about natural gas?
The EIA says spot prices might jump by 88% next year, after falling 14% in 2024—prompting drillers to finally peek out of their bunkers and consider picking up the tools again. But don’t expect a rush. They still remember the 2020 pandemic collapse, and they don’t like surprises.
Here’s the takeaway:
The oil patch isn’t being held back by red tape or politics.
It’s being throttled by cheap oil, rig costs jacked up by steel tariffs, and the cold sweat of shareholder anxiety.
They’re sitting on the rigs because the math says wait. And these boys only care about one thing—the stock price, not the pump price.
Everything else is just oilfield gossip.