Just yesterday, I told you “Drill, baby, drill” was dead.
Now the International Energy Agency (IEA) just zipped the body bag.
In its latest forecast, the IEA reports that global oil demand in 2025 will grow at its slowest rate in five years, and that U.S. oil production will taper off—despite all the flag-waving and soundbites coming from the White House.
Why? The math is simple. The cause? Not so much.
The culprit? Tariff tantrums.
Trump’s trade war is ricocheting straight through the oil industry. His tariffs on China, Canada, and just about every major trade partner have triggered retaliatory moves, spooked investors, and choked demand worldwide. The results?
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Oil prices have dropped nearly 15% since April 2—down to their lowest levels since April 2021
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U.S. producers are cutting back on drilling, not ramping it up
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Tariffs on Chinese and Canadian steel are raising the cost of critical equipment like rigs, pipelines, and storage tanks
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And now, Trump’s 125% tax on Chinese imports, and 10% on nearly everything else, is forcing American families to spend more on goods and less on travel
Here’s why that steel matters:
The oil and gas industry relies heavily on specialized steel for drill pipe, casing, wellheads, offshore platforms, refineries, and transmission pipelines. These aren’t off-the-shelf materials—they’re built to withstand high pressure, corrosive environments, and long-term structural stress. When the cost of steel jumps, so does the cost of building the entire energy infrastructure. That means fewer new wells, fewer expansions, and ultimately—fewer jobs.
So sure, you might save a couple bucks at the gas pump.
But ask the folks in the oil patch how they’re doing. Laid-off workers don’t buy fuel.
You can’t just shout “drill, baby, drill” while strangling the very supply chain that makes it possible.
Even oil executives are hitting the brakes. They see what’s coming:
Rising costs, shrinking margins, and a federal government that thinks economic strategy starts with a Twitter post and ends in tariffs.
This isn’t leadership. This is Yippy Economics—a rodeo of reactive policies and self-inflicted chaos. While Trump plays cowboy, the rigs are quiet, the steel’s too expensive, and the future’s fading faster than a flameout.
And what are we left with?
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A gutted domestic energy strategy
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Short-term price drops masking long-term job losses
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And a White House that still thinks noise is the same thing as results
So yes, the pump might feel good today.
But if you’re unemployed tomorrow, that $3 gas won’t get you very far.
“Drill baby” just hit a wall—and it’s made of tariff-hardened steel.